Politics

The Pakistanization of Maryland's Democracy (hint: it's not a good thing)

Earlier today, I completed my comprehensive exit oral exam for my master’s program in Democracy & Governance at Georgetown University.

One of the points I strongly argued in my examination is that the State of Maryland’s democracy is facing a crisis of epic proportions, and the trajectory of democratic decline and deconsolidation bears a striking resemblance to a phenomenon observed by political scientists in South Asia which I term to be Pakistanization.  This term describes the process by which a society’s elite (political and otherwise) capture industry, political institutions, media, and the judiciary, consolidating power in a way that serves their own interests at the expense of democratic norms, governance, and public welfare. Maryland, long a bastion of Democratic Party control, is increasingly exhibiting characteristics of this phenomenon, raising serious concerns about the state’s political and economic future, as well as questions as to whether the rule of law remains functional and extant within its borders.

Below, I give a brief but I think persuasive argument that Pakistanization is in full swing in Maryland, and has been for at least the past decade, though arguably it has accelerated under the tenure of Governor Wes Moore and his Lieutenant Governor Aruna Miller.

The Features of Pakistanization in Maryland

Elite Capture of Key Institutions
In Pakistan, elite capture manifests through a small class of political dynasties, security officials, and business tycoons who dominate governance and economic activity. Maryland exhibits a similar pattern through the monopolization of political and economic power by a select group of politicians and corporate interests, creating an impenetrable establishment. Legislative and executive branches are controlled by long-standing political figures who cycle through different roles within the system, with little opportunity for outsiders to break in. The judiciary and media largely serve as extensions of these entrenched interests, amplifying their narratives and shielding them from scrutiny.

 Elite Capture of the Ballot Box

Take for instance Maryland’s dubious distinction of being home to some of the most expensive electoral races in American history: in 2016, the race for Maryland’s Eight Congressional District was the most expensive in U.S. history at the time. Last year, a full third of the Maryland congressional delegation had law degrees from Harvard, and a total of half of Maryland’s federal elected officials attended an Ivy League school for some portion of their education (including an MBA at Wharton for Rep. David Trone, and an MPA from the Harvard Kennedy School for Sen. Chris Van Hollen). While the Ivy Leagues have lost some representation with Sarbanes and Trone leaving office, their replacements, Sarah Elfreth (MPP – Hopkins) and April Delaney (J.D. – Georgetown) still have fairly elite credentials (full disclosure, I too am a Hoya, and proudly note that Georgetown’s commitment to social justice runs far deeper than any other higher education institution in the land).

 But it’s not just a matter of credentialism. According to Common Cause Maryland a quarter of Maryland’s state legislators have been appointed by secretive local party boards rather than elected into their office at the first instance. This is very similar to how Pakistan’s security elites often shape legislative candidatures to their choosing in order to maintain loyalty and control over the public.

Those party boards, particularly the raucous governing body of Montgomery County’s Democratic Party, have found national and international fame in the last few years. The ex-chair of the Montgomery County Democratic Party is alleged to have threatened at least one fellow party board member to vote for candidates of the Lt. Governor’s choosing, or face their wrath. Those accusations led to a call for a boycott of party fundraising events that proved disastrous for Democratic coffers in donor rich MoCo.  

Deterioration of Quality of Life
One of the most telling signs of Pakistanization is the sharp decline in the quality of life for ordinary citizens. Maryland, despite its wealth, is experiencing increased housing insecurity, faltering public transportation, and rising crime rates. Baltimore, once an industrial powerhouse, struggles with economic stagnation and disinvestment. Even in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties—two of the state’s most economically robust regions—working-class and immigrant communities face rising living costs and diminishing public services.

According to WTOP News, crime increased for the third year in a row last year in Montgomery County. Half of Montgomery County Public Schools’ (MCPS) high schools saw a major drop in quality according to the state’s annual school report card metric in 2023. While Baltimore has seen a major drop in crime in the past year, it should be noted that carjackings, break-ins and violent crimes have seen an uptick elsewhere across the state.

Rise in Corruption and Nepotism
Maryland’s political machine operates on a system of patronage, where well-connected insiders benefit from government contracts, appointments, and policy decisions tailored to their interests. The recent FBI investigations into political corruption in Baltimore, as well as ethics scandals involving high-ranking officials, highlight the growing culture of impunity among the state’s elite. This mirrors the entrenched cronyism in Pakistan, where political figures leverage their positions to enrich themselves and their allies at the expense of governance.

Aside from the absurdity of a secretive 24-person board appointing a whopping  40+% of all of Montgomery County’s state legislators, there are other issues of nepotism at work. It is commonplace for political elites to use their influence within Maryland government circles to secure contracts for non-profits their loved ones are   employed by, or to directly influence the hiring of staff by government bodies for  their inner circles or spouses. The former practice is so common that it is termed  the Non-Profit-Political Industrial Complex by political insiders.

Corruption: Is this Maryland or a Mad Max Franchise? Film?

In the last three years: a Maryland judge has committed suicide while awaiting the FBI to arrest them on federal charges for child sexual exploitation; a popular local mayor pled guilty to 140 charges of child pornography possession; two MCPS employees were convicted of theft of state funds in the hundreds of thousands; a Montgomery County Council employee was fired after they misused over ten thousand dollars of county funds for the benefit of their spouse; another state judge was removed from the bench recently over misconduct; the ex-governor’s chief of staff was killed after a Hollywood-style shootout with federal agents on a highway (he was a fugitive facing federal corruption charges); a prosecutor was indicted (and later pled guilty to) over 80 charges of gaming the criminal prosecution system to stalk, harass and malign their ex girlfriend and the list goes on. I’ll stop here for the benefit of the reader’s sanity.

In a state with roughly  2% of the American population, that is a lot of corruption in such a short amount of time, with far more being investigated as we speak, and plenty of convictions and indictments I simply chose not to publish in this short article tonight (expect a longer one soon).

Maryland’s political elite thrive on a culture of corruption—but that too will be a later post in the series!

Monopolistic Domination of the Ballot Box

A key feature of Pakistanization is the erosion of electoral competition. In Pakistan, military-backed parties and dynastic political families suppress opposition and manipulate elections to maintain their grip on power. In Maryland, the Democratic Party has achieved near-total electoral dominance, leaving voters with little real choice. Gerrymandering, restrictive ballot access laws, and the institutionalization of party loyalty ensure that incumbents rarely face meaningful challengers. As a result, elections become performative exercises rather than genuine democratic contests.

This section requires a full post on its own (yes, it’s coming), but suffice to say Maryland’s democratic processes have become cumbersome, deliberately exclusive, and often times design to keep voters out, and electoral elites in. In the past year alone, the number of political insider scandals involving Montgomery County’s ever-troubled Democratic Party and its efforts to stage-manage democracy for the benefit of elites is fairly telling (and yes, a post on this is coming very soon).

Voter Apathy and Declining Turnout

As the political system fails to deliver meaningful change, voters disengage. The economist & political scientist Albert Hirschman’s Exit, Voice, and Loyalty framework is useful here: Marylanders, seeing no viable options for political reform, are choosing exit over voice. This can be examined through how less than half of Maryland’s voters (48%) turned out to vote in the election that put Wes Moore & Aruna Miller into office in 2021.

Less than a third of Democrats (Dems enjoy a 2:1 registration advantage in Maryland) turned out to vote in the primary election that eventually led to the election of a Lt. Governor with open associations with foreign hard-right groups (despite her repeated denials) in a state that votes less blue than only California in presidential elections. Some will argue the low electoral turnout reflects a disinterest in democracy by the electorate. I argue strenuously that it reflects a deliberate locking out of the electorate by elites (who holds a primary election in the middle of July?). As a result, voters choose to exit the electoral marketplace.

Fiscal Decline and Population Exodus

As Pakistan’s political dysfunction has driven educated professionals and businesses abroad, Maryland is experiencing its own version of brain drain. High taxes, regulatory burdens, and the cost of living are pushing residents to relocate to Virginia, Florida, and Texas. This exodus reduces the state’s tax base, putting further strain on public services and infrastructure. Moreover, Maryland’s inability to attract and retain businesses exacerbates economic stagnation, limiting opportunities for upward mobility.

Nearly 200,000 Marylanders abandoned the state in 2023 alone. It was only one of five states to have a shrinking population overall last year. The problem gets worse when we consider just who is leaving: small business owners and tax-generating wealthy Marylanders are leaving the state in droves (why that is, is beyond our scope today).

 Can Maryland Reverse Course?                 

The answer is a qualified yes, Insha’Allah. But it won’t be easy.

The Pakistanization of Maryland did not happen in a vacuum or overnight, and reversing the trend towards interminable decline will require significant structural changes.

 First, addressing the extraordinary shortcomings of the Maryland Democratic Party and its county chapters weill essential to restoring both political competition and faith that said competition isn’t being stage-managed like it is in Pakistan. This does not mean simply electing more Republicans in an effort to shore up the loyal opposition. Instead,  it means fostering a genuinely competitive political environment where independent and third-party candidates can viably challenge entrenched power, and where we see a far higher engagement at the ballot box both in primaries and general elections (closer to 60+% turnout).

 Second, the state needs systemic electoral reforms, including redistricting transparency, ranked-choice voting, and stricter anti-corruption measures. Maryland’s Office of the State Prosecutor (OSP) is routinely underfunded and often deliberately under-resourced in an effort by elites to keep politics as usual…usual. Federal agents have had to descend on the state numerous times to deal with corruption Maryland’s political elites simply benefit  directly from or don’t want to deal with. Often, the only time political elites take action is when they see some of their own breaking away from the establishment, and seek a course correction by punishing one of the own as a way to make an example out of them. That’s Pakistanization at its purest, as Pakistan’s security and political elite recently did the same to Prime Minister Imran Khan for going off-script so many times in recent years. He is now in prison on invented charges of corruption, following at least one army-sponsored assassination attempt on his life.

Finally, civic engagement must be revitalized. Marylanders need to see government as an institution that serves them, not one that exists to perpetuate a political machine. Encouraging participation in local governance, supporting independent media, and holding elected officials accountable are key to ensuring that democracy in Maryland does not succumb to the fate of Pakistanization. Indeed, while Punjabi Samosas are tasty, they should not form the basis of our governance structure.

 The symptoms of Pakistanization are clear, but there is still an opportunity to chart a different path—one that prioritizes good governance, political competition, and economic vitality over entrenched elite control. The question is whether Maryland’s citizens and the political elites who seek to govern them have the will to make that change before it’s too late.  

The clock is ticking.

 

Tonight's GOP Budget Resolution: A Fiscal Gamble That Risks Ballooning Debt

BLUF: Key Talking Points

  • The GOP budget resolution includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts but only $2 trillion in spending reductions, increasing the deficit.

  • Medicaid faces an $800 billion cut, impacting 72 million Americans, while defense and border security receive a $300 billion boost.

  • A $4 trillion debt ceiling increase signals that tax cuts will drive up national debt.

  • The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has not yet analyzed the full fiscal impact, but early estimates predict a higher debt-to-GDP ratio within five years.

  • This budget sets the stage for the 2024 election, aligning with Trump’s priorities but lacking a sustainable fiscal plan.

Introduction

The recently passed House Republican budget resolution promises sweeping tax cuts, aggressive spending reductions, and increased defense funding. Marketed as a fiscally responsible vision for America, the reality is far more precarious. If implemented, this budget will likely drive the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio higher, undermining claims of economic sustainability and setting the stage for future financial instability.

The Core Components: Tax Cuts and Spending Reductions

At the heart of the resolution are $4.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade. These cuts include extensions of the 2017 Trump tax policies, reductions in taxes on overtime, tips, and Social Security benefits, and a higher cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. While these provisions will be popular among taxpayers, their fiscal impact is another story.

To offset the revenue loss, the resolution proposes between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in spending cuts. The most controversial component is the $800 billion in reductions to Medicaid, affecting over 72 million Americans. These cuts will disproportionately impact low-income families, the elderly, and disabled individuals who rely on government-supported healthcare programs.

Defense and Border Security Get a Boost

In contrast to cuts elsewhere, the resolution increases funding for defense and border security, allocating $300 billion for military expansion and immigration enforcement. This move aligns with the GOP’s strong stance on national security but raises questions about whether these priorities justify cuts to essential social services.

The Debt Paradox: Higher Deficits on the Horizon

Despite its claim to fiscal conservatism, this budget includes a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, a tacit admission that the proposed tax cuts will widen the deficit. According to early estimates from fiscal watchdogs, the proposal could add at least $2.8 trillion to the national debt by 2034, with some models predicting an even higher burden.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has yet to release a formal analysis of the bill, but existing economic projections paint a concerning picture. Prior to this resolution, the CBO estimated that the national debt would rise from 99% of GDP in 2024 to 116% by 2034. Given the added tax cuts and spending priorities, this budget likely accelerates that trajectory, pushing the U.S. debt load into uncharted territory.

A Policy Playbook for the 2024 Election

The passage of this budget resolution is as much about setting the GOP’s policy agenda for 2024 as it is about governance. With Donald Trump leading the Republican charge, this budget reflects his administration’s economic vision—prioritizing tax relief, military strength, and immigration enforcement while cutting social programs.

However, the math does not add up. The proposed tax cuts far outweigh the spending reductions, and if history is any guide, economic growth alone will not be enough to offset the revenue losses. The result? A spiraling deficit that future administrations will have to contend with.

The Case for Fiscal Responsibility

For voters and policymakers alike, the question is not whether tax cuts are desirable but whether they are sustainable. With debt already at record highs and interest payments on that debt growing, America cannot afford another round of unfunded tax cuts without a clear plan for balancing the budget.

As the Senate considers an alternative budget framework, it is crucial for lawmakers to demand a full fiscal impact analysis. Otherwise, the country risks embracing a policy path that exacerbates economic instability rather than strengthening it.

Conclusion: A Conversation Worth Having The GOP budget resolution is not just a set of numbers—it is a reflection of national priorities and economic strategy. With billions at stake and the potential for long-term financial consequences, this is a debate worth having in the public sphere. As experts and analysts continue to dissect the details, one thing is clear: fiscal responsibility must remain at the forefront of policy discussions.

Call to Action: If you are concerned about the impact of this budget on America’s financial future, reach out to your representatives and demand transparency. Ask for a full CBO analysis and ensure that economic sustainability, not just short-term political gains, drives fiscal policy decisions. Stay informed, engage in the conversation, and share this analysis with others to highlight the stakes at hand.

Maryland’s Bait-and-Switch on Disability Funding: Don’t Be Fooled

The Moore-Miller administration is engaging in a deliberate misinformation campaign regarding their so-called restoration of funding for the Developmental Disabilities Administration (DDA). Their latest press release claims that they are only cutting funding for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 by 6%. To the untrained eye, that might seem like a reasonable compromise. But let’s break this down.

Maryland’s fiscal year ends on June 30. This means that this “restored” funding only extends for four more months—until June 30, 2025. What happens after that? FY 2026 begins on July 1, and the Moore-Miller administration has conveniently ignored that looming reality. There has been no commitment to restoring full funding beyond this brief window.

The Developmental Disabilities Administration (DDA) is Maryland's primary state agency responsible for funding community-based services for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities. Established to ensure that these individuals have the support needed to lead fulfilling lives, the DDA collaborates with various stakeholders to provide resources that promote inclusion, participation, and active citizenship. In recent years, the DDA has faced significant financial challenges. Beginning in 2021, the agency started exceeding its annual budget, with notable spending surges in 2023 and 2024. Analysts have struggled to pinpoint the exact causes of this overspending, but contributing factors include new caregiver payment methods, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and rising program and administrative costs.

This is a classic bait-and-switch tactic. As someone who has spent my entire adult life working in Maryland politics, I can recognize the playbook: trick the disabilities community into believing that funding has been restored, run out the clock on the legislative session (and therefore the appropriations process), and then, when July rolls around, bury the issue under political distractions—most likely grandstanding against the Trump administration. By then, it will be too late. The General Assembly will be out of session, meaning there will be no immediate way to allocate more money for DDA programs.

I am a Democrat. When I ran for office, I was endorsed by progressive organizations, labor unions, and immigrant rights groups in part because of my fierce advocacy for disability funding and caregiver rights. I also personally know many people working in this administration. In good faith, I have remained silent on many political matters, hoping that—despite being some of the worst people I know—they would at least govern well.

But this is unacceptable. These are real people’s lives. Not being able to pay caregivers a living wage means families like mine will be forced to make impossible choices—giving up careers, sacrificing financial stability, and struggling to provide 24/7 care that no single person can reasonably handle alone.

Just last week, a program director broke down crying on the phone with me for an entire hour. They had to inform disabled clients that their DDA-funded services would soon disappear. Many of these individuals can barely speak, feed themselves, or move independently. They are disabled for life. The programs that serve them are not luxuries; they are lifelines. They provide dignity, community, and inclusion. The Moore-Miller administration is willing to rip all of that away—unless the press and grassroots activists fighting them today continue to hold their feet to the fire.

Let’s be clear: the Moore-Miller administration’s latest announcement is dishonest, manipulative, and condescending. This is nothing more than performative virtue signaling, meant to pacify critics without making any real commitment to our most vulnerable citizens.

We in the disabilities community will not be fooled. Additionally, I fear that by speaking out, my own family may face retaliation. My siblings, who rely on DDA-funded services, could be targeted through bureaucratic neglect or delays as a way to silence me. This would be an unforgivable abuse of power, and I will be watching closely for any signs of retribution.

Do better, Wes Moore and Aruna Miller. Not everything in life is a photo op.

For more detailed information on this ongoing issue, consider reviewing the following articles:

These sources provide comprehensive insights into the challenges facing the DDA and the potential impact of the proposed budget cuts on Maryland's disability community.

It's Time We Move On From Donald Trump

The President of the United States is a corrupt, immoral, buffoon.

But Americans want solutions to their problems, not constant reminders about all of his.

Over the past two and a half years, our country has seen dramatic shifts in political norms—and definitely not for the better. Donald Trump’s first few months in office were something out of a dystopian Hollywood blockbuster, or perhaps National Lampoon. In either case, the president proved himself a poor manager, an even worse negotiator, and a breathtaking bigot. It was the stuff sensational media (not news) coverage was made for: big, glossy stories of drama, intrigue and chaos.

But its gotten old. Really old. Americans are tiring of hearing about how inept Donald Trump is, and are seeking again a new paradigm in politics: "just how is government going to improve our lives—no for real, this time?”

Progressive & liberal causes have had a boon fundraising small dollar donations on the basis that Mr. Trump is in effect, an illegitimate president. FiveThirtyEight.com reports that a majority of Americans continue to disapprove of Mr. Trump’s job performance, though the gap has narrowed significantly in recent months. One reason for the narrowing of the gap is the sense that in their ardent desire to discredit Donald Trump, his detractors have lost whatever objectivity they once had in criticizing him. That is a dangerous sentiment for our democracy; if Democrats and others cannot be trusted by voters to offer sincere critique of a man well out of his depth in his current role, the next question becomes: “well, is any of that criticism justified, in that case?”

And yet, Democrats’ priorities seem focused on satisfying a progressive base whose younger cadres, given the progression of linear time, will inherit the earth and halls of Congress fairly soon, anyway. I should know—I am one of them.

The unyielding focus on just how corrupt, how immoral and how much of a buffoon Donald Trump is will not end his term in office any sooner. Yes, there is ample evidence that impeachment is warranted, and bills accomplishing that should be debated on the House floor for the whole world to see. But the level to which the focus has become Donald Trump’s litany of misdeeds rather than offering a rational and thorough rebuttal of his policies is unhelpful, and has become a distraction at a critical time for the future of our country.

Given the immense evidence presented by the Mueller Report, and the ongoing investigations in New York and Washington into many of his close associates, Mr. Trump will likely face a day in court anyway, sooner or later. Our focus as a country should therefore be on how we plan to deliver a different future for Americans.

If Democrats and their allies are serious about delivering for the American people, they must take seriously the business at hand: How will AOC’s Green New Deal revitalize rustbelt communities? How does Rep. Ro Khanna’s Internet Bill of Rights safeguard constitutional rights and the civil rights of Americans? How will Rep. Jamie Raskin’s Shareholders United Bill help get corporate money out of politics? If Democrats spent half as much time promoting the ideas of their progressive colleagues as they do seeking to capitalize on Donald Trump chronic allergy to truth, justice and the American Way, then we would be in a different ball game right now.

Reflections on Mississippi

This post discusses the state of Mississippi as it appeals to recent news coverage. It focuses on three separate themes: An Election Night Re-Cap of the Recent Runoff Election, Emerging Demographic Change and American Identity

Me and an idealistic group of friends, ready to change the world. Biloxi, MS, Spring 2006

Me and an idealistic group of friends, ready to change the world. Biloxi, MS, Spring 2006

Sweet Ole’ Mississippi

I love Misssissippi. I went to the state 13 years ago to help repair damage after Hurricane Katrina. The people I met -- black & white, were humble folks who were thankful that we were there. The climate, natural beauty & interestingly diverse ways of life I came across fixing roofs and rebuilding houses made me feel proud to be American--and the people we were helping felt proud I was an American too.

Bigotry did exist in the hearts of some people. A woman asked me (oddly) to pray for the safety of a Christian man in Afghanistan with her, while then going on to pray we Muslim heathens saw the light of her one true faith -- awkward.

Mississippi Burning

Fast forward 13 years and a depressing additional 35 pounds on my body, and that sense of divide between Mississippi and the rest of the country has only become more pronounced. As other states in the south have begun to emerge as flagships of the new STEM-focused economy, Mississippi has continued to lag stubbornly behind. It is less educated and poorer than all of its neighbors — ranking last in healthcare, second to last in economy, fourth to last in education and 49th in the nation in opportunity for upward mobility. Yet, somehow, it ranks sixth in quality of life — and 17th out of 50 in social environment, per U.S. News & World Report.

That last ranking-anomaly explains one of two things: why so many Mississippians continue to vote red, despite their state being the butt of national (and often liberal) jokes about their rankings among the other 49 states in the union. Mississippi’s largely rural population of 2.9 million people prefer to be left alone to their own devices. Life is good in the Ole’ South, argue many. Why do outsiders have to come and meddle in Mississippi’s ways?

However, the state clearly has problems, problems that won’t be solved by their pride in being home to the largest Bible-binding factory in the country. The state has some of the worst infrastructure in the country. College attendance is very low, and even though many tech jobs today in the IT field and beyond don’t require expensive and time-consuming liberal arts degrees—the state has a remarkably low penetration of broadband internet. Along with Louisiana, a review of available data from the FCC suggests that Mississippi has perhaps the lowest broadband access of any state in the Old South.

Mississippi Masala

Sarita Choudhury (pictured above) remains my first brown-girl crush.

Sarita Choudhury (pictured above) remains my first brown-girl crush.

The dearth of broadband internet availability does prevent successful organizing among minority and immigrant communities. Mississippi. 37 percent of Mississippians are black. Native Americans, Latinos and Asian Americans add a further 3 - 5% to the state population, with Muslims in the engineering, STEM and medical fields increasing annually, creating a growing intellectual class of non-whites. All in all, if demographic trends hold, by the close of the next decade, Mississippi will likely emerge as minority-plurality, if not minority majority.

That should improve race-relations in a state that has notoriously found ways to avoid de facto integration in schools, and about whom more than a few blockbuster films have been made about racial violence, lynchings and cold-blooded murder during and after the civil rights era. Jim Crow never found more fertile soil than the Mississippi Delta, an octogenarian former cropsharer once wryly told me.

Election Night: Hyde-Smith Underperformed

No matter how conservatives tout it, Hyde-Smith under performed this past Tuesday. Mississippi was a state carried by Donald Trump by 16 percentage points in 2016. Hyde Smith only won in an election run-off by 7.8 percentage points. On election night earlier this month, she only came out ahead against Democrat Mike Espy by .9 percent, with GOP State Senator Chris McDaniel playing the role of spoiler by wooing away 16.4% of that night’s vote. That’s an underperformance of 15 points in comparison to Donald Trump, with the special election narrowing the gap between Trump in 2016 and Hyde Smith by 7.2%, or about only half. Here are some key factors why:

  1. Allegations of Racism

    It probably isn’t a good idea for any politician in America to be caught dressing up as a confederate soldier. It is an even worse idea for that politician to then be accused of lending vocal support to lynchings. Aside from the obvious bad impression this leaves among black voters in a state that is nearly 1/3 African American, the moral decrepitude and lack of ethical judgement in era of Trump that Hyde Smith showed in both these instances made even deep-red voters in Mississippi cringe. While Trump showing up twice in a single day to rescue his southern belle did help stabilize numbers, Hyde Smith’s standing with Mississippi voters might very well be damaged extensively in her next election campaign in 2021. However, it should be noted that the brother of slain civil rights icon Medger Evers, GOP politician Charles Evers strongly endorsed Hyde Smith in the wake of the discoveries made about her questionable statements and appearances.

  2. Growing dissatisfaction with the GOP

    Donald Trump campaigned here for Hyde-Smith because it’s one of the few places Americans still like him. As of October, he enjoys a 59% approval rating in Mississippi. As mind-melting as that might be, the GOP is actually losing ground in the state. Unemployment remains higher than the national average, and manufacturing and farming have both taken a hit in Trump’s trade wars. That has translated to a slow burn of support for the Republican Party which which will finally boil over sometime in the next 6-8 years.

  3. Increasing Voter Diversity

    Black Votes Matter. Mississippi’s black voters equal 37% of the electorate — the highest in the country. Two progressive judges and two African-American women judges were elected this cycle. The NAACP claims to have sent 20,000 text messages and knocked on 180,000 doors in the state this November. But the challenge is that black churches, and black voters have long memories & staunchly conservative social mores. Few have forgotten that the racist, pro-segregationist white ruling class who ran the state from the end of Reconstruction until fairly recently were Democrats. Moreover, many churchgoers of all races in Mississippi disapprove of the increasingly social liberal agenda of the left. Abortion aside, the drive for LGBTQ equality alienates many in this socially conservative state. Times are a-changing though, and as a generation of millennial African Americans take over the leadership of the state, a pivot to the left is expected.